welcome to today's update
i'm going to start off with a good news
story from australia
and then some of the goings on in the
united states are a bit strange
and in the netherlands some things are
difficult to explain as well
and a few other countries we'll see how
we go for time today so all sorts of
interesting things going on and things
that are relevant
and uh i'm not going to analyze our
prime minister's recent statement
at the moment we will probably come on
to that for uk news um
but maybe not on this video we focused
on the uk yesterday quite a bit
so western australia no community spread
for five months this is impressive
uh this report was provided by rudy
who's lived in perth for
50 years and mark mcgowan is the
governor of australia
and basically what he did was he closed
off western australia
a bit like new zealand really but this
is a land uh a land area i mean there's
the sea on one side and land on the
other
but basically you closed it off strict
border controls and the
no community cases for five months there
has been a few clusters that they knew
about that have been contained
um and people have come back in who've
tested positive
but it's all been contained in the
14-day
14-day quarantine period so a major
success story here in western australia
even if it didn't annoy a few other
people around about him and done a good
job
catching a few positive cases every week
from the quarantine showing it's working
never really had that straight to
lockdown it was fairly strict in the
beginning but not that strict in in
western australia
and now uh because there's no community
transmission
um i think things are much easier still
social distancing in shops but
mask wearing's not common so basically
we did think that new zealand was an
exception because it was an island but
here we have a huge region in australia
where the same level of success has been
attained
due to the forceful
use of the government's regional
government's power to protect its people
so really a major success story now just
to start off with the united states
let's have a quick view getting
perilously close to the 200 000 deaths
in the united states unfortunately
uh trend wise um
a bit of a kick up in the united states
though as we can see in the uh
in the data but that's not the real
main thing i wanted to talk about in the
united states today
um what i wanted to talk about was the
center for disease control now
on friday um it put up some new
information
so last friday up until yesterday put up
some new information
and on friday it wanted to make it clear
that the virus is airborne
um it once said that the virus is only
spread by coughs and sneezes less than
six feet apart
but it now wanted to make it clear
infections can be spread through
breathing infected particles that can
travel further than six feet
and linger in the air in other words
the cdc has come up to date with what
we've known about on this channel for
two months
probably longer uh probably three months
actually and in fact we were suspicious
of it way back in february
that this is an aerosolized infection
our chief medical officer yesterday in
the uk and the chief scientific officer
used the term aerosolization
this is an aerosolized infection so it's
good to see that the center for disease
control came up to date last friday
and uh various experts around the world
applauded this
hooray the center for disease control is
no longer three months out of date
but then on monday it removed it from
its website
information posted in error now i don't
expect you to take my word for this
so here we are now this is live i've
just clicked onto this
live a draft version of proposal
proposed changes to these
recommendations was posted in
error to the agency's official website
cdc is currently updating its
recommendations etc
and the advice we now have now
is what we've had on here for a long
time
so person-to-person spread all mentioned
a verisalization
removed this is what we've been had here
for ages
now this is true but it doesn't go far
enough people are in close contact with
one another about six feet within about
six feet
we now know there's so many cases the
virus has spread further than that
indoors and stuffy environments
through respiratory droplets produced
when an affected person cough sneezes or
talks we know that
but we now know it's also aerosolized
and it goes on with the uh very out of
date
um advice
what the heck has gone on here so
the center for disease control came into
the 21st century on friday
then left again on monday this is a very
strange very strange
now likewise um so that month so
posted as you've just read now likewise
the world health organization
seems very reluctant to talk about
aerosolization
um so it talks about respiratory
droplets bigger than five to ten
micrometers which are proper droplets it
says smaller than five
micrometers are aerosols or
small droplets droplet nuclei and the
difference is these are light enough to
be suspended in the air for a period of
time and can drift through the air as we
know
um the center the world health
organization saying respiratory droplet
transmission within one meter
well this is this is simply not right
we've had so much
evidence that disease can spread more
than this
and this is the i've just taken this
from the world health organization
website this morning
of an infected one meter of an infected
person has respiratory symptoms
now it does admit that aerosol
generating procedures in hospitals can
cause spread
but it says this to date and i repeat
i took this from their website this
morning just before i
made this video when i was still
preparing to date transmission of
saskarone coronavirus 2 by this type of
aerosol group has not been demonstrated
to who
so it seems like the world health
organization
and the information from the centers for
disease control in the united states now
agree with each other
but let's look at counter argument as
we've looked at in great detail so i'm
not going to do it again
i mean this is basically we will
basically prove this with evidence
on this channel several times why are we
still debating this
it's a bit like the battle of hastings
we know who won it you know what
we don't argue about who owns alaska you
know these things have been decided
it's a bit strange really but let's just
give you a sparkling of the evidence
or a bit of the evidence i know just
before we do that
um the evidence from clusters
is pretty strong and the world health
organization says
detailed investigation of these clusters
suggests that droplets and formic
transmission could explain the human
human transmission within these clusters
in other words they're saying that these
clusters
thought to be caused by aerosols could
have been caused by traditional
droplet and infected formite spread
i'm bemused but don't let me um
cloud you with my opinion let's look at
the evidence
so counter argument for example british
medical journal and
we've done this before we've done four
videos on this
since the 2003 sars outbreak researching
uh aerobiology physics and
computational fluid dynamics has
advanced our understanding of the
airsoft regeneration and carriage on
fate of respiratory particles
right so um and then that goes on to
give great details of how this happens
it's not
this is nothing particularly new is it's
explained that in great detail
now another one this is from clinical
infectious diseases
now from memory i think this one i think
these were both
they were either both july or august is
it time to address error
airborne transmission uh 239 scientists
signed an open letter and this
this is this is in the journal of
clinical infectious diseases
239 scientists signed an open letter
appealing to the medical community
and relevant national and international
bodies so national bodies would include
the centers for disease control
international bodies would include the
world health organization
to recognize the potential for airborne
spread of covered
19. if it wasn't for
airborne spread why are we wearing masks
if it wasn't for airborne spread why are
we
advising ventilation of buildings
you understand why i'm confused so what
we know for sure is
that was updated at the center for
disease control last friday removed last
monday
don't know why strange
but true posted in
error make of that what you will i am
not a conspiracy theorist but this just
does not let me put that another way
i perceive a huge gulf between the
current advice from the center for
disease control
and the world health organization and
the huge body of scientific evidence
as we have explored it several times on
this channel
i see issues go for seeing the centers
for disease control
and the world health organization and
what so patrick violence the chief
chief scientific officer of the united
kingdom said yesterday
when he talked about aerosolization
spread
we'll leave it there
uh india um i forgot some pictures of
india let me think
yeah there we go um just some of the
data there from
india uh cases around about the 92 000
per day reporting rid of a down dip
though but um
so that is accurate and deaths in india
well over a thousand per day and we
expect the death rate in india to keep
climbing unfortunately
at least for a period of time because of
this
lag effect that we are so familiar
with now and was again explained
yesterday in the uk situation
about the lag between uh the cases in
mid-october and the deaths in
mid-november
now um india the uh
second only to the united states in
cases
death's relatively small compared to
that but unfortunately more to come
reports that the health system is
overwhelmed in places
to be fair the indian health system can
struggle at the best of times especially
in poorer areas
chaos in places shortage of medical
staff and equipment government hospitals
at capacity
and because the government hospital's at
capacity in delhi and mumbai
that i know are for sure probably in
other places the government has ordered
private hospitals
to take um to take covered 19
patients from testing facilities the
problem is
as i understand this from doctors on the
ground in india
from a couple of different places as the
government's not paying for this
so reputable private hospitals in india
are essentially going bust because they
can't afford it
they're having to pay to look after all
these patients the reputable hospitals
the disreputable hospitals of course are
corruptly
charging people for their treatment so
what we seem to have is is a selection
process going on at the moment in india
where reputable hospitals are being uh
severely penalized and corrupt hospitals
are
thriving that's my reading of the
current situation who suffers of course
always who suffers is the poor people
that suffer this is why
it is difficult to
discuss this rationally because many
many
poor people are suffering and dying
unnecessarily
right um
so these are private hospitals ordered
to take these patients right so cases in
delhi
uh 200 of course the real numbers way
higher than that um
four thousand official new cases that's
for about the past
nine nine or ten days and now actually
that's slightly out of date
no icu beds in eight of eleven top
hospitals even in private hospitals in
delhi
uh meaning people that can meaning
people who don't get intensive care
are much more likely to die in fact will
be dying of course
and uh many patients unable to find a
place in hospital in the first place
um so the kind of nightmare scenario
that we're worried about for other
countries is happening in india
mumbai not so bad um busy but not
uh intensive care basically at capacity
in mumbai but other hospitals
do have some capacity uh the
indian government's reopening gyms
opening
most workplaces reopen bars cinemas are
still closed
schools and college is now reopening and
deaths likely to peak in the next few
weeks so
um not a good situation
at the moment in india now netherlands
we've looked at netherlands briefly
before i want to cover in a bit more
detail today
because there are some things that are a
bit strange happening in the netherlands
keep disappearing there we are right so
bear in mind the population of the
netherlands is only about 17 and a half
million so smallish population
now this is straight from the government
websites distancing to children
up to 12 children do not have to stay
one meters apart from each other or from
adults
so they seem to be ignoring transmission
in children
now
what we know is children shed viruses
with the same
the same viral load as adults and
younger children with
shadow with a higher viral load than
adults
but that's the regulation in um
in netherlands does it make sense to you
doesn't really quite make sense to me 17
and younger do not have to stay 1.5
meters apart from each other
okay um
[Music]
it doesn't seem to have occurred to them
that these
children young people under the age of
17 could go home and in fact their
parents and grandparents strange
recommendations to be sure in
netherlands
contract tracing testing and staying at
home again this is direct from the
website
now the good thing about the netherlands
is they publish in two languages
so they publish in full correct english
as well as dutch of course
um covered 19 symptoms
uh if you have the symptoms then gotta
stay home for 24 hours
well we know that it should be at least
seven days
and 24 hours after you're symptom-free
so again that doesn't quite make sense
children don't need to be tested unless
they become seriously ill
therefore we cannot know what the
prevalence of the virus is in children
because they're not being tested
okay um
okay so so there's some good things um
the they know about the ventilation and
things like that
it's not all bad ventilation is stressed
which is good airing out rooms which is
good um so we agree with that now face
masks
gloves like face mask so now this is
straight from the dutch government
website
the literature does not offer a clear
consensus on the effect of wearing
non-medical face masks in public spaces
wrong we've looked at that numerous
times the literature that supports that
is overwhelming
it seems like that face masks help to
prevent infections in others
only to a limited extent well no it's to
a big extent
and it also prevents infection in you
the wearer
if everyone follows the basic rules
about distances it is not necessary to
wear face masks wrong again it is
necessary to wear face masks
and this is the government body issuing
these in the netherlands
it is it is not issuing a general
recommendation to wear face masks in
public spaces
wrong so um
not out of five there to the dutch
government for homework
um could try harder
pity i didn't have a red pen to put the
cross is in red ink
how do you make sense of this i mean the
evidence for mask wearing
is overwhelming and yet
i don't know now
um vaccine
briefly before we finish oxford
astrazeneca vaccine trial still
suspended in the u.s
so we've started up again in various
places but not in the u.s
now um two british uh
patients sequentially develop transverse
myelitis
now this is a serious inflammation of
the spinal cord
now the first one
turned out to have multiple sclerosis
and
this inflammation of the spinal cord can
occur in multiple sclerosis
so the transverse myelitis that was
occurred was consistent with that
patient having multiple sclerosis
so that was kind of overlooked
but then there was another case after
that of another woman in the uk who also
had um
transverse myelitis
if i can get my technology right there
so there's a second case now recovered
so two cases of transverse myelitis
one of which could have been related to
multiple sclerosis
one of which could have just been
idiopathic as we mentioned before
that but that's two cases out of 8 000
doses of vaccine given
um if there's another case
or two certainly if there's two then i
think that means the oxford vaccine
could well be uh
have a limited future in its current
form
um anyway i'm glad to see this this
woman is recovering which is good
so proud is going on in britain
continuing britain
brazil india south america but not
going on in the united states
now it needs to demonstrate to get to
demonstrate a 50
efficiency need 150 confirmed cases
amongst our
participants to have been prevented now
that doesn't sound like many but
it's actually quite a lot because they
have to show that the vaccine has
prevented 150 infections
in the wild situation so you kind of got
to wait for people to become infected or
not
if it's proved to be 75 effective then
that could
allow for an early license
but um there was no question there is a
question mark as a result of these two
cases of transverse
myelitis the multiple sclerosis one yeah
it could just be the multiple sclerosis
but
anyway i'm glad to see these patients
are recovering so so that's good
basically we need more trial data this
is why we do clinical trials of course
to find out the safety and efficacy
so waiting to see on that one now when
we do get a vaccine how is it going to
be distributed
172 countries according to the united
nations
have signed up for this kovacs
initiative
i think the world health organization is
using the term country quite liberally
there
the actual number is probably 156
countries uh to distribute this
vac these vaccines globally because this
is a global problem we need to
dispute the vaccines globally of course
it's obvious isn't it
um because people from other countries
could
people in poorer countries are carrying
on spreading the disease it could become
endemic and then it could
come back to to to other richer
countries
so it's obvious patently obvious that
this needs to be done globally
you don't need a you don't need to be a
clever clogs to realize that
it's pretty obvious this needs to be a
global approach
and yet the governments of china
and the governments of the united states
have
not agreed to take part in this program
as of yet let's hope it's just a bit of
a bit of a delay
so um
interesting things going on we can't
always explain it
it just shows to me we've got to be led
by the science by the evidence
and we've seen examples of people that
don't seem to be going by the evidence
at the moment but um i feel i've
provided
the references in this video of course i
always
post all the references in the
description you can check any of them
you like
all the videos i've done i always post
the evidence
and i hope i'm being evidence
evidence-based and
and objective that's why it surprises me
that
national and indeed international
agencies don't always
don't always seem to be as evidence
based as we're trying to be
okay thank you for watching this video
as always