well welcome to today's talk wednesday
the 13th of april now i'm going to look
at some data from the uk today and
there's an awful lot of coverage still
around and this is the same in europe
and the united states less so in africa
but certainly a lot still around in
australia and new zealand not all of it
of of course being picked up the
infection rates are way higher than the
cases and that's the good thing about
this office for national statistics data
it's actually taking a survey so it's a
good snapshot of what's there and it's
consistent with the other surveys that
we've been using as well so we're fairly
confident about the quality of data but
we will be mentioning some of the data
that we are not given which is really
quite unfortunate and could easily be
given but let's just start off with the
overall prevalence at the moment i mean
while there's still a lot around and
this is done from national very well
conducted surveys
so prevalence the week ending the second
of april okay it's the 13th now it's
always a bit out of date
but england won in 13 people would test
positive in that week wales won in 13.
scotland northern northern ireland won
in 16 and scotland won in 13 people so
this is a very high prevalence was 7.54
of the population infected
in that single week this is still a lot
of this around now let's look at some of
the
graphics that can help us make sense of
this fairly briefly
here's the overall situation
infections remain at a record high level
so they're kind of plateaued off there a
bit now i do believe from the coverage
symptom tracker data that's probably
starting to go down a bit now but this
is always a bit out of date but it is
very accurate hospital emissions
increase slightly deaths increased
slightly
plenty of adults have had three doses
virtually everyone has got antibodies
98.8
and social distancing remains low
basically um
people are behaving as if this
pandemic's gone away which is probably
the right thing to do
um but uh interesting that people don't
seem to be worried about this anymore
social distancing
virtual well a thing of the past mask
wearing in england at least basically a
thing of the past
now let's look at the symptoms here that
we're getting these are offers for
national statistics uh
symptoms um loss of taste
that's gone down a bit loss of smells
gone down a bit but still a prevalent
feature
fever cough
shortness of breath sore throat fatigue
headache muscle aches abdominal pain
diarrhea still some diarrhea there
nausea and vomiting and asymptomatic
around about the 35 percent 40 percent
mark at the moment
um so
interestingly that that doesn't contain
the most common feature actually which
is a runny nose according to the
coverage symptom tracker data
most of these patients are presenting as
common cold type
symptoms
let's carry on with this review
um england so here we see the number of
cases
percentage testing positive as it
leveled off probably will that be down
next time the office for national
statistics does a review
yes that will be down because we know
that from the coverage symptom tracker
data so what we're looking at here
is the peak
that is the peak that we are looking at
now i think we can be fairly confident
about that
scotland likewise started going down
already in scotland which is good to see
again based on national survey data now
this is ba2
and this is ba1 so seven percent now ba2
0.6
ba1 so exactly as we predicted ba2 has
essentially displaced ba1 omicron both
omicron of course
very similar amount of uh illness and
hospitalization generated but of course
increased transmissibility of ba2 why
it's become more prevalent why we've got
so much
around at so much infection around at
the moment
so there we go quite clearly ba2 has
taken over and it took over
uh really quite a while back but earlier
late february took over as the most
dominant feature in england
uh scotland similar picture uh six point
eight percent now ba two naught point
six percent ba one
and it's a similar picture in the other
parts of
the other parts of the united kingdom
the only exception is northern ireland
where ba2 took over earlier than other
parts of the
united kingdom
but as we know ba2 is becoming the
global dominant strain now now this this
graphics useful because it shows us the
consistency
between the office for national
statistics data
in blue here and the real-time
assessment of community transmission the
react study which is now finished of
course but it shows that so there's a
reaction every time there's a react
study point is it's fairly similar
completely separate survey uh done in a
completely separate way but giving very
comparable data which of course is
always reassuring
infections in age groups so slight
decrease in the 50 to 69
and a slight decrease in the over 70s
and of course the reason i put these up
are these are the people that are most
likely to require hospitalization as a
result of their infection
so again i think we can be fairly sure
that hospitalizations at least
people suffering being admitted because
they have covered a symptomatic of it is
going to go is going to go down more on
hospitalizations in a minute
let's do this in order um 1.7 million
people in the uk are experiencing
self-reported long covered now
this is disappointing
um
because we had hoped i had hoped that
during the omicron period
the incidence of long covered would uh
go
down but it hasn't
so omicron from this
appears to be producing
as much long covet on a population level
as delta did
but of course there's way more
infections with omicron so i think we
can fairly safely say that omicron is
less likely to cause long covered
because way more people have omicron so
if you take 100 people with delta more
of those will get long covered if you
take 100 people with omicron less of
those will get long covered from this
data because although there has been an
increase
um there's been a disproportionate
increase in the sheer numbers
the sheer massive prevalence
of people with omicron but i'm not going
to pretend that's not disappointing it's
a lot of people
it's uh it's one was it 1.7 million
people in the country
with some long coverage as of the 5th of
a 5th of march
hospital admissions still going up
slightly
but we do believe are leveling off now
there's a major problem with the
data here from the office of national
statistics it's not differentiating
between people admitted
because they have covered
with con for for covered because they
have covered and they have symptoms and
those that are incidental admissions
because there's so much covered in the
community of course we saw this in south
africa we've seen this everywhere when
the huge amount of people in the
community
with omicron
that therefore
of course the people admitted to
hospital are are coming from the
community so more are coming in and we
believe that the office of national
statistics doesn't give this but we
believe about 58 percent of emissions
uh with covered into hospital are
incidental
and the the smaller proportion are
admitted for reasons of covered but of
course that still causes a lot of
segregation issues in hospital having to
take
infection control precautions the
numbers in intensive care the sickest
numbers remains really quite low and has
done so for a good long time now since
the start of omicron which is is good
news
nevertheless still some strain on
hospitals
although manageable but of course the
big problem with hospitalizations is
we've got this delay of millions of
people waiting for treatment so even
though we might manage on a day-to-day
basis got this huge backlog that needs
to be addressed which is causing serious
problems and we have noticed that
there's um
some studies show already
there's going to be an increase in
deaths from things like cancer as a
result of cancelled uh
appointments and um that this could be
really quite uh significant council
appointments delayed appointments
difficulty accessing treatment
all of all of these things so still
still a problem no question about that
what's next oh yeah infectious
hospitalizations in death so we see
infections pretty well across the rage
group
hospitalizations of course greatly
disproportionately in the older
groupings
and indeed deaths greatly
disproportionate in the older
age groups as
well
that's the graphic for deaths um that's
the the alpha wave
this is the delta wave this is the
omicron wave this was the original
wuhan virus wave so we can see death's
now much much lower
good news again another graphic showing
deaths
the portion of deaths where covered 19
was uh the underlying cause of death was
down
so these are the proportions of death
this is england and wales
where uh
coronavirus was the actual cause of
death so we see now that deaths uh from
covid as opposed to deaths with with
kobe down to about what 60 percent there
so um
while people are dying
with covered fewer people
proportionately are dying so while
people are dying with covet fewer people
proportionately are dying from
covet
so um in other words they're dying of
other things and just happen uh to be
infected at the time of at the time of
the writing of the death certificate at
the time of death this is death
certificate data so good that this is
going down
indicating that all this bit here all
these
all the remainder here are people that
died with coveted infection incidentally
whereas these ones the 60 or so percent
died
from the covered more directly
now the this figure here is actually in
young people
aged
12 to 29
and it's the estimate of death after
vaccination
now the the put this graphic up
from the office of national statistics
and i believe they put it up to try and
reassure people that the vaccine is not
killing
people in the 12 to 29 year old age
group but it's also showing it's not
saving any lives either
so why why are they having it could be
asked
so basically we're seeing i mean this is
basically noise around the no difference
the no difference line
and i think that's the end of the
particular slides i wanted to show just
now so let's just
reinforce some of the main points that i
wanted to
stress that tell us interesting things
people were more likely to test positive
in the two weeks up to the 26th of march
if they
so remember these are people that were
more likely to test positive
and this is quite tricky because it kind
of goes into um
into uh
into into negatives and double negatives
like i ain't not going nowhere but we'll
try and we'll try and get it right um
so people most likely to test positive
in the two weeks up to the 26th so more
likely to test positive so people are
more likely to test positive that not
previously been affected with covenant
19 obviously because they would not have
natural immunity
and this
this is showing us the benefit of
natural immunity so i'm very pleased to
see this
statistic here
um more like to test positive if they've
traveled abroad in the last 28 days
now i don't believe that this is because
uh people are picking up aboard because
they're on airplanes and airports
airports can be completely crowded
aeroplanes of course you're in some kind
of aluminium tube way up in the air okay
they've got filters and all this kind of
stuff but you're still pretty close to
other people
so um i believe that's mostly
transmitted during the the transit
process rather than these horrible
places abroad that are crammed full of
cramped full of infection
i think that's the more likely scenario
more likely to test positive um if
they're of white ethnicity
so white people ethnic white people more
likely to test positive quite why that
would be
is it because other ethnicities have
already
been uh more commonly infected and
therefore more likely to have
natural immunity that's possible
we don't know from this data but it's
possible
worked outside the home for two three
four
days a week well of course working from
home you're less likely to come into
contact with people it was pretty
obvious
had not been so people were more likely
to test positive if they've not been
living in a multi-generational household
so if there's just uh a
husband wife and two one child or
whatever it is in the household um then
they are actually more likely to test
positive and again i think what's
happening here is we look for a long
quite a long time at this
and the people that we're living in
multi-generational households we're
getting infected more readily
now you're more likely to become
infected if you're living in a in a
single generation household
in a more nuclear sort of
family
and i think this means that the
infection has spread widely through
multiple multi-generational households
and again generated quite a lot of
natural immunity so i see that as a
remarkably uh encouraging feature
uh quite pleased with that men were more
likely to be positive than females
i'm not quite sure about that one
we're not impacted by disability again
maybe more disabled people have already
been infected is that the case
don't really know about that one had not
been in contact with hospitals so more
likely to test positive if you'd not
this is the double negatives not been in
contact with hospitals
so in other words contact with hospitals
from that would appear to be protective
which of course is ludicrous but uh
it's that's that that's actually what
it's saying
so more likely to test positive you had
not been in contact with hospitals
again i think indicating there's just
been a lot of um
people
workers in hospital already infected and
there's probably quite a lot of herd
immunity community immunity natural
immunity whatever you want to call it
people get all annoyed about me and say
we're never going to reach herd immunity
and i think i think that's true because
the disease is becoming endemic
so when we say herd immunity we're not
we're not really meaning that the
disease is going to go away we're going
to mean it's become inconsequential and
endemic
so
when we say herd immunity we're meaning
the presence of widespread immunity
meaning the disease severity goes down
dramatically which to me basically is
pretty well as good as herd immunity
okay it would be nice to eradicate it
altogether of course
but uh we know that's that's no longer
possible in the next good few seasons
people were more likely to test positive
if they lived in less deprived areas
so more likely to test positive if they
lived in less deprived areas so in other
words living in a deprived area again
appears to be protective
which we're not saying but uh but again
probably because the infections already
spread widely in the more deprived
areas
so i hope i got all my double negatives
right on that one
interesting though i mean okay that's
that's thinking out loud to some extent
but
but there you go um we can only try and
make sense of the data that we are given
uh this is important we affect
re-infections re-infections
re-infections were 10 times higher with
omicron variant period than the delta
period so
re-infections of course people that have
been infected before
getting infected again with omicron
re-infections
between july uh 2020 and the 20th of
march 2022 people were more likely to be
infected if they were that's a pretty
long time period i must say so i'm not
quite sure how much this data
really means but we'll give it because
the office national statistics does were
unvaccinated yeah okay but how much of
that is current and how much of that was
in earlier stages of the infection we're
simply not told so it doesn't actually
tell us much had a milder primary
infection with a lower viral load
this does indicate that people that were
more symptomatic
were generating higher levels of
immunity or at least
more longevity of immunity
but of course if you've had a
minimally symptomatic infection you
could well i've had a couple of
asymptomatic infections since then or a
an asymptomatic infection since then so
again i'm not sure it's really telling
us quite that much really
younger people
more likely to be infected
probably due to social
behavior older people tend to stay home
more and again lived in more deprived
areas more likely to get re-infected
now the self-reported long-covered this
this is a concern
as of the 5th of march 1.7 million
people that's 2.7 of the whole
population
um
complaining of a
long coffee this is a lot of people and
it's going to have a significant impact
on um
well everything in society potentially
this is a lot of people to have long
coverage symptoms
69 of those for at least 12 weeks
45 of those symptomatic for at least a
year
so um
quite a lot of people there symptomatic
with long covered for at least
a year
what were the most common symptoms
the main one is fatigue
51 complainer fatigue ongoing shortness
of breath 34 loss of smell 28 muscle
aches 24 percent and uh adversely
affected day-to-day activities in 67
percent of those people
long covers more common in
the relatively younger age groups
so the very young people and the older
people getting less long covered
um i would imagine the reasons for this
are immunological
people aged 35 to 49 often have very
active immune systems although there
again so do people in the late teens and
early 20s so
we don't really have an answer for that
yet um
more more more information required
long copy more common in females this is
a merging trend
uh females more likely to have long
covered than males
more long covered in more deprived areas
working social people working in social
care teaching education and healthcare
more likely to have long covered
no definitive advances as to why
people that have activity limit limiting
health conditions or disability again
that's not too surprising that they're
more likely to travel on coverage
one percent of primary age school during
school children 2.7 of older age
children
but that that is that is at some point
since march 2020 so that doesn't tell us
how many get better so again these
aren't particularly useful statistics
because they're they're kind of
that they kind of tell us about a whole
uh whole time period
rather than what is happening
now so this part historical
data in that which is
less interesting to me because it
doesn't tell me what's going on
in with health now
hospital admissions
emissions with covered
and uh admissions for not
admissions with covet
and admissions for covered not
differentiated why not
why is this data not given
and the other data that's not being
given
is the amount of hospitalizations in
people that have had
vaccines
infection without vaccination and
infection with vaccination
and again this data would be simple to
give then we will build to differentiate
the amount of protection being given
from vaccine alone
from natural infection alone
and from hybrid immunity
but from the office for national
statistics data for all the money we're
spending on this data we are not told
that and to me that would be the most
fundamental question
is natural immunity working better to
protect against hospitalizations than
vaccination
what about vaccination and natural
infection
we don't know
why on earth
are we not being told this why is this
fundamental question
simply absent from the data
are the office of national statistics
hoping that we simply will not realize
that we're not being told this vital
piece of information
i don't know but it's very very
frustrating that we don't know this
um risk of death in omicron times
um
we are at risk of deathing on the cons
so 67 lower than in the uh the delta
time now
this is due to the reduced pathogenicity
of the omicron variant
because in the delta time vaccine levels
were high
now a lot of vaccine uh have been a long
time ago now in the uk
so in fact in protection from the
vaccine has somewhat waned and yet risk
of death from omicron still 67 percent
less
so i think we can be fairly clear that
omicron is less pathogenic
less likely to cause death than
delta this is partly due to immunity but
not really because the immunity was
there in the delta time so this is due
to the fact that the
omicron is less likely to cause death in
the delta i think we can be fairly clear
about that as well it's interesting the
way that things are clarified with time
no evidence of changing the risk of
death following covered 19 for vaccine
young people that's the slide that we
showed
so they seem to put that on to show that
vaccines not killing young people
but it also shows that there's no
evidence
of a change in the risk of death
following vaccination in younger people
so why vaccinate them
if it's not really protecting them and
we know they're very unlikely to get
um hospitalizations and severe illness
so after vaccine
for 12 weeks in 12 weeks
after vaccine there's no difference in
the death rate in young people
so why have an intervention that's going
to make no difference to the death rate
i really don't get that
unless i'm missing something but that's
direct quote no evidence of a change in
the risk of death following covered 19
vaccination
in younger people
so there we go right just one more thing
then we're done this one covered 19
mortality rates and lows for those with
three vaccinations okay we'll accept
that
the risk of death involvement over 19
has been consistently lower for people
who've had a third vaccine dose
that is true although not it would
appear
in those aged between 12 and
29.
not in that group it would appear
so presumably the office of national
autistics is talking about older age
groups here or the population as a whole
perhaps they're talking about the
population as a whole in which case it
is most certainly true
people who had received a second dose of
vaccine had a higher risk of death
involvement covered 19 if their second
vaccine dose was more than six months
ago compared with those where it's less
six months less than six months ago
indicating the protection against death
if you've had two vaccine doses is
waning
definitely waning
disappointing but vaccine protection is
waning meaning we can't rely on vaccines
okay the third dose is going to help for
a period of time
um but um
the protection that vaccines give if
you've only had two doses against death
is waning
disappointing
um hopefully that will be more than
compensated for by the
natural immunity that's being generated
by the omicron and the ba2 omicron wave
as we
speak
briefly antibodies this is the last
thing
antibodies uh now uh antibodies this is
due to infection or vaccination
now how hard would it be
for the office national office for
national statistics
to do both types of uh
antibody tests looking at the spike
protein
and looking at the core proteins from
other parts of the virus which are not
generated by vaccination
they could easily differentiate
between immunity from natural infection
and immunity from vaccination but they
do not do so again why is this not being
done
you need to people need to write to
politicians about this and say why are
we being kept in the dark about the
effect of natural immunity why is the
office of national statistics that we're
spending millions of pounds on this
survey on saying nothing telling us
nothing about this
it would be so easy to test for both
good they've got the blood anyway why
not test for both types of antibodies
why don't they do why don't they do that
why are we being kept in the dark about
natural immunity it is completely
unacceptable
unacceptable and yet
we have to accept it because we we have
no choice but it is ridiculous
why aren't we told that
they just say it's caused by infection
or vaccination well well thank you
uranus we didn't know that
we want to know the difference between
the two but hey you are not allowed to
know
the information is great
but it only tells us what it tells us
what we really want to know
we're not told
why not this would be easy to do
it's almost as if there's some
government conspiracy to keep the whole
thing about natural immunity in the dark
why why would they want to do that of
course there's no government conspiracy
we're not conspiracy theorists on this
channel are we but but why don't they
tell it why don't we have this
information it would be so easy to do
anyway
the vaccination the banty body rates of
course are basically 99
but is that through
how much of that is through vaccine how
much is of that is through natural
immunity how much of that is through
hybrid immunity sorry people you're not
allowed to know
you'll just know what i see fit to tell
you
very uh disappointing situation
now i'm just going to go briefly um
if some of you that have been following
the community health project responsive
in africa
the channel was able to send some money
to buy some land in africa we're
building a medical facility there
uh but we haven't
got the the funds to do that yet so
rather than the land um sitting there
doing the thing
it's being used to feed the local
population i'm so glad we've got this
land because if not it could have been
brought up by people who use it for
commercial crops whereas what we're
doing now is we're planting beans for
the local uh local people and let's have
a quick look at refactors report on bean
planting
beans of course so nutritious and they
think he's planting maize as well so
thanks for the report for um just play a
few minutes great great stuff from
africa
uh welcome to today's video i'm in the
village on our land for the facility
as i told you last time we agreed to put
in uh some crops and today
they are planting we are actually
planting
beans
we already put down
the maize
and now today they are planting
the beans
so i'm going to be here
for the whole day i can see these are
the
holes
that they did to
plant them
of course different styles of farming
everywhere
i this may not be a perfect one but is
the one that
is used on the in the village here
so though we may change to better
farming methods like some people
suggested
uh
but this is the one they know
so we because of little time we firstly
wanted to put
our seeds down
so the planting beans
here is one of my mother's
she's putting the seeds
these are the beans that we are planting
yeah they look nice
and what happens uh they first put some
some people will be digging holes and
then some put
uh
seeds and then
some people will close
they are using direct that that is how
they do it here
i don't know how they do it where you
are
that is how we do it here in uganda
actually let me say in most parts of
uganda
so that is the
that's a process
yeah of course
my mom is right there
say hi hi too
yeah so what are you doing
i'm waiting oh what am i doing
i'm planting you're planting what beans
hey are they good they are good
good quality good
quality expect that we shall get here
now for food to feed our workers yeah
so beans we expect a lot of beans i
think you've seen huh yeah
yeah i don't know if
if we resemble oh sorry
she's here this is my mother i'm there
yeah so guys that's the
issue
uh we are doing the planting
i thank you for
all the support that you've been giving
us
people who have been sending in several
donations that are really
important people who
bought me coffee on buy me a coffee
i really appreciate and people who are
still buying me coffee
yeah coffee is dangerous for our health
if we take too much but not the one
you're buying this one the more you buy
the more it helps me
and then also people who are on patreon
thank you very much for your
dedication
uh you've really been so supportive
uh we can rely on that money to make
plans ahead of us
because we expect it monthly so thank
you very much for donating and
for all our new subscribers who came due
to coffee 19 updates
there we go
thanks for that muffa um
do watch the i'll put the link and of
course you can watch the uh
you can watch the whole thing on with
fraffer's channel um
good to know that money that we've
raised through through this channel is
is doing that work they're there and of
course if you want uh more information
on my fragrance channel you'll see a lot
of his medical work as well but
um it's basic community support work
absolutely vital and of course always
good to see the whole family working
together didn't get what they were doing
there with their feet but uh they've
obviously got it worked out so i'm not
going to criticize it
so thank you for watching