hey we did it we did it
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Joe what's up guys your boy Benny don't
take me to the casino don't let me bet
your hand in blackjack or poker you'll
lose everything don't even let me pull a
slot machine lever for you I I I'm no
good at that style of betting or
gambling and don't let me pick who's
going to win the Super Bowl this year I
don't know however there is one thing
that I do day in and day out every
single second of every single waking day
which is read polls read energy read
vibrations read sort of the harmony of
what's Happening inside of the political
landscape more importantly we get out
and speak to people we do man on the
street shows we talk with people we
travel the country and you get to read
the room and so I'm pretty good at
predicting what's about to happen in the
political space and what will happen I'm
one of the very few handful of reporters
that actually chose to go to Donald
Trump's Victory party in 2016 inste to
Hillary Clinton's which was just down
the block there were thousands of
supporters locked into Hillary Clinton's
losing party while we were raging inside
of Donald Trump's election night party
and it was really really fun and so
anyway we have a good record of picking
winners here and of seeing the future
and earlier this week we said KLA Harris
was going to be exactly where John where
Joe Biden was before he dropped out that
KLA Harris was going to collapse after
the debates in 24 hours 48 hours
approximately however we while our
prediction is correct uh it's a little
bit early here are the polls that
dropped today every single Sunday they
do a new round of big polls from The New
York Times and from some of the biggest
pollsters on Earth some of those liberal
polls on Earth are now showing that
Donald Trump has retaken the lead not
only on the full ballot but also in a
head-to-head against kamla Harris this
is massive from New York Times Sena
College this is one of the biggest most
liberal polls in the country and it
shows Donald Trump has a one or two
point Advantage
nationally this means that Donald Trump
may be well on his way to winning the
popular vote Trump pulls ahead of Comm
Harrison major poll signed that his camp
that her campaign is absolutely fizzling
the DNC convention was like a couple of
seconds ago Nate silver saying uh
there's a silver lining here which is
that um it's probably going to dampen
the blow for what I'm about to do to
kamla oh baby look at this Nate silver
has a very interesting algorithm that
factors in all of the polls and waights
them correctly and then
averages mathematically against the
Electoral College and what is likely and
also includes the poll's likelihood of
being accurate and right given their
past performance and now Nate silver is
saying that Donald Trump has a 63%
chance of winning the Electoral College
K Harris down to 36% this is exactly the
range that Joe Biden was in before they
shived him and dumped him overboard oh
man New York Times poll Donald Trump
outperforming 2016 and 2020 in the
midwest Donald Trump got uh good numbers
in the midwest but now he's up by double
digits we've never seen anything like it
of course if Donald Trump wins the
Midwest we're all going to bed by 9900
pm on Election night uh national uh
generic Electoral College polling shows
Trump has flipped the tables on
kamla just absolutely and totally wild
and Donald Trump's chance of winning is
nearing nearing 30 30 points on K Harris
incredible Ohio Donald Trump's up nine
Donald Trump up nine in the midwest look
at this Donald Trump leading in all the
swing States the chances of winning
according to Nate silver Donald Trump up
by double digits in many must-win swing
States and Donald Trump's percentage
chances of winning in places like
Arizona are in the 70s and high 60s
Georgia and Nevada well if you win
Pennsylania Georgia and Nevada that's
that's the ball game baby again we're
all going we're all going to bed early
2024 election forecast according to poly
market look at that Trump up one comma
down one and the debate hasn't even
happened yet and this is what I think is
instructive look at this they track
where Trump and Biden were and how Biden
sort of closed the Gap here and then
what happened the debate here's debate
day here we get into June and then Biden
just collapses here look at that Biden
just absolutely falls off a cliff and KL
Harris gets of course the uh artificial
sugar high here and she's neck and neck
with Trump and now her collapse has
begun wait till again in less than 48
hours we'll have a debate on our hands
and we'll see what happens then so
Donald Trump winning strong shocking
moments these are the actual screenshots
from New York Times and from Nate Sil
and the enthusiasm Gap here you can see
is collapsing like a star from Heaven
enthusiasm g a gap now Republicans have
overtaken it the fundamentals remain
strong for Donald Trump we've been
predicting this because we know that the
fundamentals are strong for president
Trump and that nothing's really changed
look at this Trump National polling
correspondent Sil Ron odds of winning
the popular vote if Donald Trump wins
the popular vote by a point here it says
Trump popular vote 40 47 48 then he has
100% chance of winning the Electoral
College 100% chance of winning the
Electoral College this is insanity I
mean it's fun it's exciting it's crazy
and if he's this strong in the midwest
then we are all going to bed by midnight
again there's no real map for K to play
with she has to win everything and then
some and pick up some Donald Trump could
literally pick up in the midwest he's
polling within the Marti of error and in
Minnesota of all places and you get
another electoral vote in uh in in
Nebraska so to prove you that we've been
right about this here is pollster Rich
Baris on our program earlier this week
go so we have a lot of polls coming out
this morning showing that Trump's up by
a point or two across swing States trip
foger I know Ras M uh you're saying that
KL Harris do not be shocked when KLA
Harris winds up a week from now after
the debate at where Biden was where yeah
yeah where you're looking at five and
10o gaps in swing States and can you can
you can you talk us through that I think
that Camala could do better in National
polling and even in the National vote
than Biden was gearing up to do because
there are just certain really deep blue
areas where she's gonna you know it's
not a core Walking Corpse anymore so
they're going to get off their couch and
they're going to vote or they're going
to mail in a ballad ever that still will
not help her with the voters that Biden
was suffering with in like the northern
Midwest and the in the sunb Belt states
um you know they thought when they got
in this race that their path would be
through the Sun Belt and then plucking
off of course what they thought at the
time Pennsylvania would be the easiest
but they even know in their own polling
she's down in Pennsylvania and I'm gonna
blow the lid off of it I mean if I'm
wrong commala you can release your poll
right now and you can put it out on
Twitter and show everybody that you're
up and you're polling but you know
that's not the case so you can't do that
right so you would drop it and it would
say what Trump plus almost two right
because just saw it so anyway uh you
know basically I'm telling you they know
this and um you know there's like an
environment that was giving her it's
like a high you know and the response bu
bloated her her numbers and when this
dust settles I mean she could have a
great debate performance Benny but the
truth is debates don't really have a
tremendous impact there are two that
will be added to the history books um
where they did one was Ronald Reagan of
course in a single debate against Jimmy
Carter and that's something that people
like me and theologist talk about all
the time but the other one was gonna is
gonna be Joe Biden you know just having
a complete mental breakdown on TV
because it was an emperor has no close
moment look at the interview she did
with uh Dana Dana whatever Bash from CNN
if they taped almost an hour worth of
footage you're in this business if they
taped almost an hour worth of footage
all right and they're only going to
least 30 something minutes and those 30s
something minutes are awful because
they're they are they and Democrats
really felt like in order to stop what
I'm saying from happening in in a couple
of weeks she needed a knockout CNN
interview she didn't put it up how bad
is the rest of that interview if that's
the section we got Benny you know what
I'm saying like think about that for a
second how bad is it release the tapes
release the tapes so that makes my
confidence level a lot less that she's
going to go out there and knock this out
of the park when it comes to the debate
she would need something even Biden was
considered to have done significantly
better but what happened in the post-
Labor Day environment Trump just kept
closing and closing he's a very strong
closer and mean yes past his prologue
but it doesn't necessarily um it it
doesn't guarantee that you know pass
will be prologue but damn I mean if
you're the Democratic nominee do you not
want to be 10 points ahead of Donald
Trump right now you know how this goes
you know how this closes by
mid-september your lead is fading by
October you got your push Poes and your
Biden plus 17s that are trying to still
give people something to snort up their
nose right to keep them going another
couple weeks but it doesn't happen and
then come election day this huge swarm
of people will come to the polls
crawling across broken glass they'll
walk over the hot lava just to get to
the damn voting booth to vote for this
guy so yeah that's what I'm telling you
is going to happen in a couple weeks
mark my words
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