well good morning everyone and thank you
for coming back today it's Monday the
24th of February 2020
now I've got some more news for you
today that have collected partly from
news outlets to explain things about the
nature of this virus and I've got quite
a few emails with direct contacts that
have got around the world at the moment
that you are emailing me information
from the situation on the ground in
various locations now basically I think
if the w-h-o doesn't declare a pandemic
today they're going to lose a lot of
credibility I really don't know quite
what is going on there but we need to
declare a pandemic so that governments
around the world start taking this
seriously start implementing the
measures that we need to prevent the
spread of this condition now looking at
some of the news that was Italy
yesterday we don't know what it is this
morning probably a few more yesterday or
the day before it was 100 in the day
before that it was 30 so we've got this
great increase in cases in Italy 50,000
people are locked down and this police
roadblocks to the towns so people aren't
allowed in and they're not allowed out
the supermarkets in certain areas are
empty that doesn't concern me too much
the Italian government is more than
capable of getting food to the area but
it does reflect individual anxiety about
what is going on here I feel now the
Italian health authorities are still
searching for patient zero they don't
know where this outbreak came from this
index case who they suspected has
actually turned out to test negative so
it's very questionable whether he was
the index case so a bit of mystery going
on there and again this raises the
possibility of community-based spread
which is concerning Venice has canceled
its carnival quite a big deal for Venice
and all schools have been closed till
the end of February in these northern
Italian
Provinces so basically the north of
Italy you have closed the schools down
all schools now Italy did impose a
travel ban from China quite early on in
this outbreak but apparently what's been
happening is people have been working in
Italy from China often unofficially or
indeed illegally and they've been
traveling to Italy for work via
intermediate countries from which Italy
did not have a travel ban so that's
probably partly why this has arisen in
Italy now another reason why it's arisen
in Italy it's probably because we know
about it in Italy so Italy has got good
health surveillance systems they have a
good health service and the cases were
readily recognized in Italy I suspect
this is in many other countries where
it's not as readily recognized as it is
in Italy so Italy might be a bit of a
self-selecting sample because it is able
to identify these cases at an early
stage into quarantine at an early stage
and it certainly seems the Italian
authorities have done a good job on this
and have closed down the areas let's
just hope it's enough to to work in that
Italian situation now moving on to the
situation in the UK there's been four
new positive cases from the 28 that were
flown back from Yokohama in Japan who
were on the Diamond Princess so that
takes the 13 cases in total recorded in
the UK now that's the UK cases in total
but we've got four new ones from the 28
on the diamond princess now all 28 of
the diamond princess transfer EES from
Yokohama are in isolation and unlike
previous isolations these ones are not
allowed to socialize with each other
which is excellent because it's
probable - possible that more of the 24
that are left uninfected are still are
going to turn out to be positive and
they could infect each other so I'm glad
that they are segregated from each other
now but what does concern me is these
four new cases that have been diagnosed
in the UK in the last 24 hours
none of these had any symptoms a few
days ago when they left Japan they were
all asymptomatic and yet new we now can
see in retrospect that they were all
carrying the virus that have already
been infected at that time so again
we've got people that are infected
showing no symptoms and we believe
transmitting the virus to other people
during that pre-symptomatic time another
hundred people who were transferred
directly from Wuhan have been released
directly now after 14 days now I believe
these people about three negative tests
which is encouraging but what is
slightly concerning is there is
information now that suggests incubation
periods can be longer than 14 days and
the certainly confirmed cases from China
of one or two or three cases of
incubation periods in the 20s of days
and one up to 27 days so basically I am
happy because the VAT 3 negative tests
but there again we do know that people
that have tested negative subsequently
tested positive so I'm not quite sure
whether to say I'm happy with that a lot
I'm kind of I'm not sure about that in
the moment probably okay but anyway now
South Korea gone up from 206 for 33
yesterday 602 sorry that was yesterday
day before a day before that hurt under
161 cases today you've now got 763 cases
in Korea 7 deaths
or church services suspended all over
Korea public meetings discouraged
Parliament is postponed indefinitely and
government has taken the highest level
of priority that gives the government
additional powers now
Israel South Korea and Japanese tourists
have been banned there is a case now in
Israel in a case in Lebanon and
travelers who have traveled to China are
also banned which just seemed to make
sense now here an k0 in Iran some local
sources are telling me may well have
been an Iranian national who traveled to
China and back so it looks like the
index case the person that brought the
disease in tur around was an Iranian
national who traveled to China we don't
have the date on that yet
in Iran officially the 61 case 61 cases
61 cases and deaths now reported out 50
as official figures and there were cases
reported across the country now the
first death in Iran it transpires was on
the 13th of February but that wasn't
announced tour the 19th of February so
we've got this delay as the government
seek to manage news which is unfortunate
so that's 13 14 15 16 6 6 days delay a
lot could have been done in terms of
confinement in six days isolation of
infected people in six days now this is
a direct email of had this morning from
Iranian Nationals and this is a quote
Tehran situation is terrible with
reports of death by the hour now that's
from a contactor in Iran I have nowhere
verifying that but I know who they are
and I don't believe they're lying
and I'm not sure about the all flights
but a lot of stopped in a lot of flights
in and out of Iran have been have been
stopped now there's no real doubt that
there's a huge outbreak in Iran no real
doubt about that unfortunately just some
further evidence from contacts in Iran
again this is a hospital in there and
I'm not going to attempt to pronounce it
in Tehran infected cases have been
diagnosed in two surgeons two and
ethicists anesthesiologists in the
state's two nephrologist two kidney
doctors three nurses and three interns
I've been told by reliable sources that
they those people have been infected and
that's just in one Hospital in interim I
was alarmed to learn that the religious
shrines in the City of whom are still
open with people coming and going even
though we know there's many confirmed
cases in that city of crew which is a
pilgrimage City so the city is somewhat
some reports say the city has cut down
but other reports shut down but other
other reports say that the shrines are
open and people are coming and going
the this gentleman here is the deputy of
the Combe provincial parliament and he's
infected apparently giving rise to the
possibility that other members of the
government are infected and I was also
alarmed to hear that in provinces that
are not officially infected workers are
forbidden to use the protective gear so
as not to alarm the public now this this
politicalization is is unfortunate
that's the news I'm getting at the
moment China I've canceled the People's
National Congress now that's a big deal
this is a big political stunt every year
for the the court the Chinese Communist
Party it's a huge thing for them and
for them to counsel that is no no small
thing whoo-hah nice steel seals despite
earlier reports that it had been opened
it is not it is still sealed and
President Lee has reported shortcomings
now that is amazing that is really quite
amazing for the Chinese Communist Party
to admit shortcomings really is quite
amazing but I'm delighted to see they
have I do hope this means we're going to
get more transparency from China
now the rise in new cases in China is
slowing down according to official
figures so the still may be just under a
thousand new cases a day something like
that but the rate of increase is slowing
down so we were getting more than that
in the past so the rate of increase in
China is slowing down the total number
is increasing but that number is
increasing more slowly and I actually
believe this because so much of China
maybe 700 million people are basically
shut down locked down in China now so I
do believe this report because they're
taking such extreme measures to isolate
and to prevent communities from mixing
there by spreading the virus on so I do
believe that is happening and as well as
that in in Wuhan and who Bay Province
now that the epidemic is reaching its
kind of natural peak at about this time
some epidemics reach and natural peak
they go higher and higher than the
number of cases like level off and then
eventually they'll start going down so
we're seeing the number of cases in
Wuhan starting to that the peak should
be reached so we would expect just from
the natural evolution of an epidemic
that those cases would start to level
off now but of course the rest of China
there's going to be a lag behind that
and of course the rest of the world
there's still a lag behind that so q8 in
Bahrain cases from people who've
recently returned to a farmer ran now if
the Iranian figures the Iranian official
figures I'm pretty sure there's someone
from Canada who arrived back from Iran
well so if we do believe the official
cases if we believe the 61 cases in Iran
then we have to believe that these cases
in Kuwait and Bahrain just happened to
bump into one of the 61 that the person
from Canada just happened to bump into
one of the 61 in a population of what 50
million or more in around so that
stretches credulity doesn't it so we can
get a lot of information actually from
travelers so you know if we've got
travelers in Kuwait Bahrain and Canada
or coming back from a run or testing
positive or having been to different
parts of Iran then to me that means that
the situation is widespread in Iran and
the cases I'm the reports I'm getting
from contacts on the ground and around
uh.well distressing quite upsetting yeah
people do seem to be um to be dying in
large numbers in Iran the situation is
almost certainly the same in North Korea
we believe the South Korean authorities
believe there's a lot of deaths in North
Korea and I do suspect strongly that is
true so that's just a quick news report
I've got some interesting signs to bring
you later I never get time yeah the
world health organization needs to
declare this as a pandemic and we need
to start taking much more stringent
measures now in terms of reducing
international travel the idea that you
would take an international flight at
the moment just for holiday is yeah we
need to we need to think seriously about
reducing our connectivity for a period
of time even in countries like the UK
and the States I think we need to start
bringing about some social change now so
I suggested a church show the other day
that people are going to stop after
shaking hands for a few months stop
hugging we learnt about these there's
this social this cultural kissing in
around yesterday that needs to stop
social the social kissing needs to stop
just for a period of time I think we do
need to moderate our behavior and of
course we need to pay great attention to
to hygiene and and preventing the spread
of this disease I'll just say one more
thing that's not going to stop the
disease I think this will continue
spreading but what it will do is it will
slow down the spread and give us more
time to prepare and also as you know one
of my great fears is that there's a lot
of people that are going to be ill when
they catch this so eighty percent of
people are probably going to get mild
infection which is great and then
hopefully make a full recovery
we hope but but maybe 14% of people are
going to get more severe disease and
need oxygen and medical care about five
percent of people are going to get a
critical condition probably in need
quite a lot of medical care or almost
intensive care or indeed the intensive
care sort of situations and we can't
deal with thousands of those at the same
time so if we could slow this down and
we can stop the end of the pandemic from
the numbers of cases from doing that and
going up and down really quickly so we
don't want it to go so if we take if we
take the number of cases here that the
way things are going the number of cases
in the world is kind of going to go like
this
now we don't we don't want that we can't
really cope with the proportion there
that are going to be ill all at the same
time what we want is more for it to go
something like this what we don't want
it but this is this will be a lot better
if we can go kind of like that so we can
delay
the glut of cases if you like that would
be good to delay that and that would
mean that we could care much better for
those that get the complications because
in this situation we're not going to be
able to so that is that is the aim I'm
not saying the aim is to stop this
pandemic but we could dramatically slow
it down that means we can treat poorly
people a lot better and that means the
case fatality rate will be a lot lower
and that means the death death numbers
of complications the pneumonia in the
acute respiratory distress syndrome from
the common 19 will be will be less