ECONOMISTS YAN HATSIA SAYS A
SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE IS NOW OFF
THE TABLE.
LET'S BRING IN JARED BERNSTEIN,
CHAIRMAN OF THE PRESIDENT'S
COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISERS.
JARED, THANKS FOR JOINING PUPS
GOOD TO SEE YOU THIS MORNING.
WHAT IS THE MESSAGE THAT YOU'RE
BRINGING US TODAY, AS YOU DO,
FROM ALL -- ALL OF THE PRESIDENT
AND ALL OF HIS MEN?
WHAT POINT DO YOU WANT TO MAKE?
>> MEN AND WOMEN.
LET'S START WITH JAN, A GREAT
ECONOMIST.
I KNOW YOU HAVE JAN ON
FREQUENTLY.
HE'S A PRIZE-WINNING FORECASTER.
THE REASON HE GAVE FOR THE
MARKDOWN FROM 20 TO 15%, WHICH
BY THE WAY, 15% IS THE
UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITY OF A
RECESSION IN ANY GIVEN TIME,
WERE THREE FACTORS, ENCOURAGING
NEWS ON INFLATION, FAVORABLE
REAL INCOME, WHICH OF COURSE, IS
RELATED TO ENCOURAGING NEWS ON
INFLATION, AND WHAT THEY CALL
OVER AT GOLDMAN THE CLOSING OF
THE JOB WORKER GAP.
MEANING, COOLING IN THE LABOR
MARKET, REALIGNING SUPPLY AND
DEMAND.
SO I THINK THE OVERALL MACRO
MESSAGE FROM OUR SPACE IS THAT
BI
BIDENOMICS IN ACTION IS HELPING
TO BUILD THE ECONOMY FROM THE
BOTTOM UP AND THE MIDDLE OUT.
AND THE TIGHT LABOR MARKET
BETTER REALIGNED, AS JAN
SUGGESTED.
THE TIGHT LABOR MARKET IS NOW
SUPPORTING REAL-WAGE GAINS.
THAT IS WAGES BEATING PRICES
THAT FEEDS INTO DISPOSABLE
INCOME, CONSUMER SPENDING, AND
YOU HAVE THIS VIRTUAL CYCLE THAT
I THINK LED TO GOLDMAN'S
DOWNGRADE.
>> WE HAD A COUPLE OF FORMER
SENATORS ON.
JUDD GREG AND HEIDI HEITKAMP.
AND I MENTIONED SOME OF THE
THINGS THAT ARE OUT IN THE
MORNING PAPERS, JARED.
I DON'T WANT YOU TO JUST SHOOT
THE MESSENGER.
I GUESS THE JOURNAL AND THE "NEW
YORK POST" ARE BOTH RUPERT
MURDOCH-OWNED ENTITIES.
THAT'S PROBABLY THE EXCUSE THAT
I ALWAYS HEAR.
HERE'S THE COVER OF "THE
WASHINGTON POST."
LIBOR AND IT TALKS ABOUT HOW THE
PRESIDENT CONSTANTLY TALKS ABOUT
CUTTING THE DEFICIT, WHEN, IN
FACT, THAT'S GOING TO BE $2
TRILLION, DOUBLE LAST YEAR.
AND THE CUTS THAT HE DID MAKE
ARE BASED ON CUTTING FROM THE
PANDEMIC LEVEL.
SO IT'S KIND OF DISINGENUOUS.
ALL OF THAT TAKEN TOGETHER, IT
LEAVES A VY SOUR TASTE IN MOST
PEOPLE'S MOUTHS.
AND WE TALK ABOUT IT ALL THE
TIME, IF YOU ASK THEM
INDIVIDUALLY ABOUT CERTAIN
THINGS, THEY'RE MORE OPTIMISTIC,
BUT ONLY ONE THIRD CONSISTENTLY
OF AMERICANS THINK THAT -- BUY
INTO YOUR CONTENTION THAT
BIDENOMICS IS WORKING.
MAYBE YOU NEED TO COME ON EVERY
DAY, BECAUSE IT'S NOT WORKING.
>> I CERTAINLY DON'T HAVE THE
LUXURY OF DOING THAT, BUT LET ME
TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT
BIDENOMICS AND PEOPLE'S
SENTIMENTS ABOUT IT.
THE POLLS YOU'RE REFLECTING ARE
SOMETIMES 30,000 TO 40,000 FEET
UP.
I'M NOT DISCOUNTING THEM, I KNOW
THEY'RE REAL.
BUT I WANT TO TALK ABOUT POLL
RESULTS THAT ASK ABOUT THE
SPECIFIC COMPONENTS OF
BIDENOMICS, 82% SUPPORT CAPPING
INSULIN COSTS FOR SENIORS AT $85
A MONTH.
81% SUPPORT GIVING THE
GOVERNMENT THE POWER TO
NEGOTIATE FOR PRESCRIPTION
DRUGS.
WHICH IS NOW IN THE SYSTEM CUTS
THE DEFICIT BY $100 BILLION.
79% SUPPORT CREATING TAX
INCENTIVES.
800,000 MANUFACTURING JOBS SINCE
THIS PRESIDENT HAS GOT HERE, AND
SOME REALLY GREAT INVESTMENT
INDICATORS WITH INVESTMENT
COMING OFF THE SIDELINES.
77% SUPPORT CAPPING
OUT-OF-POCKET COSTS ON
PRESCRIPTION DRUGS.
THAT'S ALSO COMING INTO PLAY.
NOW, LOOK, MY POINT IS THAT YOU
CAN BARELY GET AMERICANS -- 80%
OF AMERICANS TO AGREE ON
ANYTHING.
AND HERE THEY ARE, LINE AFTER
LINE, AGREEING ABOUT THE
IMPORTANCE OF THE COMPONENTS OF
BIDENOMICS.
SO I THINK IT'S AN -- AN
INACCURATE NARRATIVE TO DECLARE
THAT