you are most welcome to this talk it is
monday evening the
29th of march bit of news from the
united kingdom in the united states and
europe
and tomorrow the world health
organization is going to be releasing
its report on the
origins of the virus and we've got a
sneak preview of that uh
don't hold your breath on that but we
will be looking at it
now just start off with some
contextualization for where we are
at at the moment now here we see the new
uh confirmed covered 19 cases per
million
um the uk is basically flat
of course new zealand and australia have
been leading the way all the way through
canada is going up and a bit of an
upturn in the united states
more on that upturn in the united states
shortly
it is a concern
europe well let's just remind ourselves
again that
this was the united kingdom here so
reasonably low
and that's the united kingdom there
compared to the rest of europe now
thankfully uh our friends in ireland um
not too bad but more cases in the uk
germany worse austria worse italy worse
sweden worse france czech republic worse
and hungary with high numbers so we are
seeing this
significant really resurgence
in europe and of course this is driven
by the new the new variants
now um let us go on to the
sneak preview of the world health
organization report
now this is this has been leaked by the
the popular press
to summarize this as far as i can see it
says diddly squat
but it does have the advantage of
insulting our intelligence so
let's look at this now um so it's
reporting tomorrow
uh now the team hit the ground uh pretty
well
give or take a full year after the
outbreak
that there were there were difficulties
in organizing the tour so it was a year
until they hit the ground
a little late you might think
joint world health organization china
report
this is the washington post article you
you'll find a
we'll have an official link to the full
report tomorrow this is just a sneak
preview
uh coronavirus most likely jump from an
animal to humans by an intermediate
animal host well get away
um imagine that um i think we first said
this round about
was it late january or early february
last year
anyway nice that the world health
organization's caught up with that
downplays possible uh possibility at
least from a lab
recommends further study path of
transmission between animals and humans
as far as we know some quite elaborate
further studies in other asian countries
um this of course will be taking
attention away from other countries
recommended further transmission through
frozen food now
we believe that tomorrow this world
health organization report
is going to say that the virus might
have been transmitted around the world
through frozen food and
chinese scientists of course or some
have said it didn't originate in china
it got to china through
frozen food now if the report says that
i'm probably going to be writing to my
gp because you and me
paid for this report via our taxes and
if this report is
intimating that this virus did not
originate in china
i will be deeply unhappy as you will
um does not recommend additional
research into
lab leak hypothesis
um now apparently the three labs in
wuhan that deal with viruses but of
course none of them were
were leaked um anyway um let's go and
see
don't don't listen to me in my opinions
let's see what other people are saying
about this
us secretary of state
um presumably well informed concerns
about the methodology and the process
yes i would agree
these are in italics are the direct
quotes the fact that the government in
beijing apparently helped to write it so
good that the government's being helpful
to write the report
national security adviser it is
imperative that
this report be independent with expert
findings free from intervention or
alteration by the chinese government so
we agree that's important
and this is why it's important to better
understand this pandemic and prepare for
the next one
so another pandemic could well arise out
of
china because of the way that they
interact with animals
um there's no sign that that is going to
dramatically change
so there's no reason not to expect
another zoonotic
spillover infection much data collected
by the chinese scientist ahead of the
visit than analyzed by the joint team i
mean really
why didn't they just email it to them
you know it's just getting
let's keep it cognitive
australian microbiologists on the team
um i mean yes we did a three-hour visit
this is to the
wuhan institute of virology so they flew
around the world
this expert team and they did a
three-hour visit
and it was sort of managed in the sense
that there was a lot of people there and
we did a tour
so that's nice they had a guided tour
around the facility
oh they did get to ask questions well
isn't that good they got to ask
questions
you could do if you so desired a more
detailed forensic examination well
this is the world health organization
team that went there
and this implies that they did not do
that why on earth
did they go or more to the point why did
we pay them to go
but that's another whole negotiation on
discussion in other words that didn't
happen
so um
there you go we will we'll check on the
official the official report when it
should be released tomorrow
expecting it weeks and weeks ago of
course it's been delayed
um they're probably trying to put it off
as long as they can
um doing the credibility of of uh
the team and by extension this is the
tragic bit
the world health organization no good
whatsoever
so um this just takes away from all the
brilliant science that
brilliant scientists do do in the world
health organization because of these
government
governance issues right
now i'm not going to go through lots and
lots of numbers from the united states
today because
we've done that repeatedly i'm just
going to simply report something from
the director of the center for disease
control
this is a direct quote from her michelle
wilinski
infectious disease doctor of course
before her appointment at the uh
the cdc so seven day average above 60
000 per day up 10
on the week us cases i'm not going to
show you graphs and lots of figures
today we've done all that recently
death rate up by 3 and of course we know
there's a big delay in the death rate so
unfortunately this means the death rate
will probably carry on going up now for
some more weeks hospitalization is also
somewhat up
anywhere direct quotes from dr wolenski
i'm going to lose the script and i'm
going to reflect on the recurring
feeling i have of impending doom so
she's
left a script and she's being honest now
um this is refreshing now impending doom
is actually a medical expression um it's
the sort of expression you would expect
doctors to use
so if a patient feels they're about to
die we say the patient has a feeling of
impending doom it's like a recognized
medical expression um
we have so much to look forward to so
much promise and potential of where we
are and so much reason for hope but
right now i'm
scared and remember she's
highly qualified u.s trajectory mirrors
the trends
a few weeks ago in europe not a direct
quote but this is what she's worried
about and we saw that
worrying trajectory in europe caused by
the new variants
it's still a race between vaccinations
and infections
but i would have thought a country would
be wise to listen to their director
for the centers for disease control
please hold on a little longer i so
badly want this to be done
we're almost there but not quite yet
so are we going to see what is
essentially a fourth wave
in the united states um potentially
um are we going to see more deaths in
the next few weeks
or almost certainly um
she finishes off by saying
uh country does not have the luxury of
inaction
so unfortunately we had expected an
increase in cases
in the united states in march it's just
starting now so it's starting a couple
of weeks later the night i personally
thought it would but it does seem
to be starting now despite the extensive
vaccination campaign which of course is
spectacular
but it does seem that so many in the
united states have let the guard down
maybe texas is leading the the way
in that with the exception of austin
which is
is more compliant with regulations it
has to be said
and also whether you like it or not i
know many of you don't
but um it looks like it's being
inevitable now the white house
is working on a standardized vaccine
passport
governments this is going to be
essential for international travel i
predict
and it's a case of how much it is
essential for domestic activity as well
but we know that the workout the white
house is now
actively working on that
now lots of people write in the comments
that
they don't like this idea that's fine
and if you're free to do that of course
but i know a lot of you don't like it
what i would like to know is what you
want to do instead
yeah every time you don't like something
you have to say what you would do
instead so
let's have suggestions of what to do
instead and
i think it's going to be pretty well for
sure this is going to be an electronic
uh modality of um
uh vaccine passporting
now um we had the prime minister's
briefing today in the uk so i thought
i'd just have a look at the graphics
they are pretty good
you can actually download them all now
so i've kind of pinched them from the
government website so let's have a quick
look
um number of people testing positive
recovery 19. now
it's good but basically it's now
level now looking at that flat line
there
what would you estimate the r value to
be well
i would estimate it to be one based on
that line pretty well one
okay there's a few percent reduction in
the week but it's pretty well flat and
[Music]
i think it's going to go up in the next
weeks and potentially month or two as
the restrictions are lifted
in the uk um
next map so this is from the uh cabin
office
briefing room they've just built
themselves a nice new posh briefing room
number of people in hospital with coffee
19.
good to see that going down also useful
to have this liners comparison
peak of the first wave of the 12th of
april 2020 so we see that the peak of
the second wave in terms of
hospitalizations
quite a lot higher than the um
first wave now i had predicted this
wouldn't be the case
i got this wrong because i didn't factor
in the great effect
of the new variant the kent variant the
b117 variant
so that increase in hospitalizations
there is due to the
variant effect without that i'm sure we
would have stayed
well below the new variant has probably
cost all this huge
chunk of mountain here this this uh
i go of uh i go of cases here
caused by the new variant um
now the uh the director of the census
for disease control is aware of this of
course and i think this
is factoring into her anxiety
so that's that one a number of deaths
uh people have had a positive test so i
think this is within 28 days of a
positive test
again first peak uh first peak
highest seven day rolling average on the
10th of april
so again as a result of the new variance
we are well over that
and without the new variant would have
probably gone to about there and then we
would have gone down
instead we've had to suffer
uh endure this appallingly high death
rate but the most recent
seven day average is uh 63 deaths per
day so coming down nicely but
still not gone away
now this is the vaccination status which
of course is excellent so the first dose
we see
uh well over 30 million now 30 and a
half million or
so but we do also see that the second
dose
strategy is is starting
now the government is quite clear that
people who've had the first dose will be
getting the second dose
this may mean that people don't get that
some people in the younger age groups
don't get their first dose for longer
this seems to be the strategy that the
government is following
hopefully the supplies will come soon
there's good news about extra
manufacturing capacity in the uk it's
going to be here soon
a few months time we're going to be
awash with vaccines but not
yet alas not yet
so they're the second doses which of
course will carry on increasing
now this is a particularly useful
graphic
age distribution have covered 19 deaths
and cases
so obviously here we have the deaths now
this line here is drawn at about 50
years old isn't it
so most of the deaths above this age
group
the vast majority but tragically some
some younger deaths as well um
total number of people diagnosed we see
more in the younger age group
and of course under under this red line
here
no one is yet vaccinated unless they've
got special risks or their health care
providers
so i'm afraid we are going to see an
increase in cases
from this group because they're not yet
vaccinated
but this group here is not going to be
transmitting the virus to the older age
group
because they're partly protected and
increasingly so as more of them get the
second dose
but more importantly this group here is
not going to be transmitting to this
group here
so they end up in this group here the
dead group
there's going to be much smaller numbers
in here because they are greatly
protected even after the first dose of
vaccine
from severe illness and and death this
is the great thing about the vaccination
program
so that's very uh encouraging in many
ways
now this is uh the
cases in different age groups now this
is age two to school year six which is
ten or eleven
so we see in junior school um um
well that's nursery school to the end of
junior school so age 2 to age 10
basically
very slight and and there's a new phrase
that's being used in these conferences
now
they're using the phrase up tick so we
better move with the terminology there's
a very slight uptick
in the 2 to 10 year old age group
um school school year seven to eleven so
this is the eleven
seven eight nine ten so this is like 11
to 15
11 to 16 year old age group a greater
increase
six foreman students um so that's um
this is sort of 16 17 year olds
to uh 24 year olds a slight downturn
so this is the main group where the
cases have gone up in the secondary
school uh
age group the the 11 to uh
15 16 year old age group and of course
this
was expected it was inevitable actually
and i'm just pleased it's not a bigger
uptick than uh
we i personally had feared it's not as
bad as i i thought it
could have been so um
yes it's up yes it can continue to go up
yes there can be more spread
but hopefully that won't result in
deaths and that's kind of illustrated by
this graphic here it took me a while to
work this out now
what they're saying here is if you take
100 000 people in the population of the
uk
how many would we expect to be
hospitalized with covered 19
in a four week period so this is like
like if you live in a city of a hundred
thousand or if you live in a city of a
million just multiply this by ten
but let's imagine this is a city of a
hundred thousand people now with
with no vaccines at all uh in the two
two-week period
and sorry in a four-week period with the
current infection rate
you'd expect uh nearly 29 people in the
55 to 64 year old age group to be
hospitalized
a 45 to 54 year old old age group 21.2
13.97
in the younger age groups so that's what
you would expect if no one was
vaccinated
now this is if everyone was vaccinated
and this is um vaccination
just after one dose so if everyone in
these age groups have had one dose
of course the ones that get two doses
are going to have an increased level of
protection against hospitalization
but even after one dose is very good
protection
so um hopefully now most of this age
group is vaccinated
so instead of 28.9 in a four-week period
in this
city of 100 000 people would expect 5.8
4.2 in the 45 to 54 year olds
now of course because this age group's
vaccinated now it means we should be
able to keep most of these people out of
hospital
and we're vaccinating over 50 so some of
these people out of hospital
so what this means is we can expect that
many from that age group in hospital
that many from that age group in
hospital
but quite a few of these ones and quite
a few of these ones
so what this means is because of the way
the vaccination program has been rolled
out
the average age of people hospitalized
in the uk
is going to become less i think that's
what that means the average age in
hospital is going to drop as older
people are protected
but unfortunately still
some young people are going to be
hospitalized in this
random city of 100 000 people
so um useful graphics there useful way
to explain things i think that's all
that's all helpful
now in the uk of course we're going
through this process now of
the reopening um we've now gone at the
29th of march so in england at least
outdoor gatherings of six people or two
households outdoor sports now open
meetings in private gardens outdoor
sports allowed
the next uh significant restriction
restriction shouldn't be lifted till the
12th of april
now on the 12th of april pubs and
restaurants open for outdoor
drinking and eating non-essential retail
open hairdressers and some public
buildings and libraries will open but
not till the 12th of april
so this is another this is another well
it's not that long now but it was five
weeks after the original uh
instigation of stage one on the 8th of
march
so it's not that long away now really
indoor leisure like swimming pools and
gyms opening
self-contained holiday accommodation
opening campsites opening
still no indoor mix in between
households review of
international leisure travel is going to
be announced on the 12th of april so
willy bell will go on a summer holiday
this year if you want to fly away
probably not
but i'm saying probably not because of
the high numbers of the
cases caused by the new variants in
europe
funerals up to 30 people wedding guests
up to 15 as of the 12th of april
now these will cause an increase in
cases but as we say
these increasing cases should not result
in increased
hospitalizations because of the
protection given by the vaccines
but it is dependent on the government's
road map so we'll just finish with this
today
the road map so that road map the
reopening is contingent on on these four
four four tests right test number one
uh the coronavirus vaccine program
continues to go to plan
at the moment that's true april there is
going to be a downturn now whether that
downturn is sufficient to make the
government rethink i really really doubt
it
i suspect they're going to do everything
they possibly can to carry on with the
12th of april
reopenings uh second
test uh vaccines are sufficiently
reducing the number of people dying or
needing hospitalization well again that
will be met i'm sure
because the the higher risk groups are
are now being uh
increasingly vaccinated and have been
increasingly vaccinated already
third test infection rates do not surge
do not risk a surge in hospital
transmissions now note
what this test is not saying infection
rates do not
risk a surge in hospital transmission
it's not saying infection rates stay
down
so infection rates will go up
i think that's inevitable they will go
up but they're not going to risk a surge
in hospital transmission so that will be
met
despite increasing rates
despite an increase in the number of
younger people
that are in hospital as a percentage of
the total people of hospital people
hospitalized for cloverd
so unfortunately more younger people or
younger people are going to carry on
being hospitalized for some time
but the overall burden of people in
hospital was going to go down
significantly
and the fourth test new coronavirus
variants do not fundamentally change the
risk of lifting restrictions
that one is a bit more of an unknown it
depends on how much we want to fly
around the place
because these are going to come from
overseas so interesting to note the
government's prepared to accept
increasing
infections uh
as long as it doesn't risk a surge in
hospitalization well i think that's us
for today um the more astute
amongst you will have noticed uh
winston's new mask
uh nice and flowery now these
he would like to winston would like to
thank joan mcpherson for making these
masks who sends them
to us now these are joan makes these the
proper three layers
as per the world health organization
guidelines and what she does is she
actually irons on a third layer inside
and it's also uh soft to allow for
absorption of moisture so actually i
think these are actually really as
well as being very attractive mats
they're really good ones so
joan lives just north of me in the
beautiful country of
scotland where i was born and so far
she's given away
1400 she's made and given away 1400
masks so
joan you have my admiration and
especially as you refuse to accept any
payment for them so this is you know
pandemics brought some good things out
in people so
um i think i'll wear that tomorrow
myself it's a very attractive mask
good excellent so um that's us for today
thank you of course very much for
watching