hey guys my name is Colin and this is
Colin talks crypto if you watched my
last video the video called Big clue to
when the market May bottom where we
showed the federal funds rate
correlation to the S P 500 we talked
about how the S P 500 tends to have a
delayed reaction to the pivot point for
the drop in the effect of federal funds
rate and if you haven't watched that
video already please watch it so that
you understand what I'm going to talk
about in this video
there is a correction that needs to be
made to that video a very important
correction and so I'm making this video
just to make this one correction
everything else in that video is still
valid except for these two dates right
here
and right now I'm just going to flash
back and forth between the old dates and
the new dates this is the corrected
dates and I'm not going to sugarcoat it
they are dramatically different than
they were before
previously we postulated a pivot in the
federal funds rate around March of 2023
and a corresponding bottom in the S P
500 around July of 2023.
so why am I now showing you that the
pivot that I postulate to occur is
actually more like November 2024 with a
bottoming in the S P 500 indicated by
this orange vertical line around
September of
2026. that's a huge difference of two to
three years for each of these different
lines
so first of all I want to apologize
because I did not catch this
basically what happened is I believe I
found a bug in trading View now I'll
walk you step by step through what
happened how I caught it a subscriber
that helped me immensely and what this
means for the results and the
conclusions we made in that previous
video and part of the reason I want to
jump to making this corrective video
with the new correct dates here with the
little black boxes around them just to
highlight them is because that video did
gain quite a bit of popularity it
definitely started up trending and
becoming one of my more popular videos
in recent times so it just becomes all
the more important for me to get this
corrected data out there so what
happened well I logged into my YouTube
account and I started going through some
of the user comments I do that usually
every couple days and I read this
comment right here from KK and thank you
so much KK for making this comment
actually both of these comments because
it led me to figure out what was going
on and it actually ultimately led to the
creation of this video
so he said to me why are your dates at
the bottom messed up between the blue
lines and the orange lines in the year
2000 the blue and orange lines are two
years apart but in 2023 they are the
same relative distance on the screen but
only a few months apart and so I was
like what is this guy talking about let
me take a look and I'll show you what
he's talking about the distance between
this blue line right here and this
orange line right here
let's take that as one unit of distance
well where else on the chart do you see
approximately this one unit of distance
well right here and right here and this
is what he's referring to he says the
2000 Gap you can see that the date of
the pivot this blue line is October 2000
and the corresponding bottom of the S P
500 is September 2002 two years occurred
between these two lines
and so let's look at the more recent
projection of the pivot and the possible
bottom of the S P 500 we have a March
2023 pivot and a July 2023 bottom well
that doesn't quite make sense does it
because the distance between these lines
is about the same and yet we had a
two-year gap between these and we have
just a couple month gap between these
I'm gonna do my best to really quickly
here show you why that happened and I do
believe this is actually a bug in the
trading view software I guess I'll have
to write them a message and bring this
to their attention unless there's
something that I just am missing maybe I
am wrong and maybe I just don't
understand how this works but to me it
looks really messed up
so I'm going to pull up the actual
trading view chart here this is it this
is where I made the video from and
obviously you can see I have a ton of
vertical blue and orange lines which
have dates down there now there's so
many dates going on that it kind of
obfuscates the actual x-axis and it's
hard to see the regular labels so this
is why it was difficult and I didn't
spot it because I actually had my dates
all covered up here
now the effect of federal funds rate as
I covered in my last video only updates
itself every month it's a monthly
reported statistic it does not have more
frequent reporting than monthly
and as you can see right now I'm in the
monthly mode
but when I had worked on that chart and
when I had presented that information to
you guys you can see I was in weekly
mode
now that shouldn't be a problem but
apparently for trading view it seems
that it may and here is why this is the
easiest way to show this I'm going to
hide all the lines in the chart
now you can see the access labels much
more clearly and you can see that they
progress at an even rate that is up
until we hit the present day and after
the present day they decrease in
rapidity so here's 2016 2017 2018 2019
2020 2021 2022 and then 2024 way over
here
so 2023 would be right here in the
middle pretty much
obviously that is not the right time
scale now to really exacerbate this
let's go down to the Daily time span and
you'll see exactly what's going on here
look at this you have yearly changes
here's a three year Gap three year Gap
three year Gap you'd expect a three year
Gap to be right here but no we have look
at 2023 is way over here
well that's wrong how can that be when
we were just moving in three-year gaps
every inch on the screen here suddenly
now there's this like three inch Gap and
you have a two-year Gap it doesn't add
up and the threshold for where this
changes is the present day I don't know
why that's the case all I can observe is
that we have the effective federal funds
rate which only updates monthly so the
next thing I tried was hey let's check
the monthly chart and sure enough
everything lines up perfectly so now
we're progressing by three year
intervals 2021 2024 2027 2030. as you'd
expect even spacing and even intervals
so the conclusion here is that the
future portion of the graph I guess many
people don't use that because this bug
this seeming bug has never been caught
apparently the portion of this graph
that lies in the future does not scale
correctly if you have chart data that
only updates on a monthly interval and
you're viewing it in another time span
it if you view this with weekly candles
daily candles or any other candle other
than a monthly candle and I realize that
these are not candles this is just a
line chart but it's still based on the
same intervals you will get incorrect
data now I know that tradingview could
fix that they could make it so that on a
weekly basis or on a daily basis it
scales the future time access the same
as it did the past but for whatever
reason I think a bug it doesn't do that
so that is what happened and then add on
top of that all these labels like this
and it gets a little tricky to see
what's happening so that's the
explanation for what happened
so even if that's not my error and maybe
it is maybe I missed something I
apologize immensely for that
misreporting of that date because a lot
of people have looked at that video and
seen those dates that I had put again
the dates that I had put there were 2023
March and July for the pivot and the
bottom of the S P 500 and now we're
talking November 2024 for the pivot and
September 2026 for the bottom of the S P
500 that is an enormous difference
shockingly different so I do apologize
immensely for that I'll have to just
look really carefully at the charts I
never fathomed that the future time
intervals would change on a chart and
with software that's so reputable and
used worldwide and renowned like every
expert Trader uses trading View and I
can't believe that this hasn't been
caught before so anyways let me know if
I'm wrong because I can have that too if
I'm wrong I'll own up to that for sure
all right so that's enough on what
happened and why but again a major major
thank you to the user KK right here in
my comment section who is literally the
one reason that I noticed this not any
other person noticed this issue but KK
so thank you so much all right so now
that that's out of the way now that you
understand what happened there let's
talk a little bit more about this chart
with these changes and what does this
mean so again we're looking at the
corrected information right here
November 2024 for the anticipated pivot
of the effective federal funds rate and
again watch that last video for how I
came to choose this it's essentially
just looking at the patterns that we
have observed and approximating this is
by no means exact
where we think that it's possible the
next pivot could occur now I'm kind of
Blown Away by the fact that it could be
so far in the future I mean this is what
two years from now literally two years
from now
um I'm saying that we may pivot and I
did not change the distance of these
lines or anything I kept it the same
because I don't want to be biased just
because I saw new dates appear down here
I'm keeping the curve that I drew here
both on the S P 500 and the effective
federal funds rate I kept them the exact
same as the previous video so all that
changed was the dates that trading view
was misreporting the actual amounts that
would drop remain exactly the same we're
still expecting an S P 500 low of
approximately 2500 or 2100 these two
gray lines which would be a 48 drop from
the top or a 56 drop from the peak and
that does not change at all only the
timeline for how long it takes us to
reach those particular goals holes is
changed so the figures here are exactly
as they should be and they have not
changed at all nothing else changed
other than the year and the month that
these events occur or that we postulate
these events occur and like I said in
the first video I could be wrong I'm
just putting it out there kind of
painting what looks to be a realistic
picture a lot can happen in two to three
years and so we'll have to see how this
pans out but I think it's really
important like I said in the first video
the main takeaway is to step back and to
breathe and to realize you have more
time than we may think a lot of the time
we get so caught up in stocks and charts
and following the news daily that we
think events are going to happen way
faster than they actually do you know I
bet you back in the year 2000 or 2007
when we saw half of this drop occur we
probably thought man that's a huge drop
it's over so much time has elapsed
there's no way this could go down
further and yet what happened you know
we had another enormous capitulation
over the same amount of time yet again
so another whole year practically of
drop occurred and it's just an example
of how we I think should
take a step back and really be patient
with the stock market because I don't
think that it's going to unfold in a
bottom in the next couple of months some
people think we're already bottoming but
the FED has not even begun decreasing
the interest rate increases let alone
flattened it let alone dropped it and
there's a delay with each of those
actions and there's a delay between the
actual pivot and the bottom so there's
so much time that
If You're Expecting The Bottom to be in
the near future like this year or in the
coming few months I think you're going
to be sorely disappointed it doesn't
mean we can't have a rebound we'll
absolutely have a bounce up we'll have a
ton of those on the way and they'll seem
huge at the time but it looks to me like
we may be making a massive new low
around the year
2026. remember the steepest portion of
the drop for every recession occurs
after the FED pivots and actually begins
reducing the interest rates which is
pretty mind-blowing but that is the
pattern that we see and like I said it's
actually the exception for that to not
be the case every time the FED pivots
the stock market actually goes down
contrary to my belief that it actually
would be bullish and go up it's just not
how it works historically it's almost
never happened
so we'll have a s p 500 bottom
theoretically in 2026. I would say give
or take
six months in either direction because
this is such a big time span of forecast
so give me six months on either side of
either of these blue or orange lines and
we'll call that an amazing projection if
that does come to be the case but I do
think that this is absolutely possible
it does make sense because you know back
in 2000 it took two years for the stock
market to bottom out back in 2008 it
took almost two years for the stock
market to bottom out so we are looking
at a potentially very long time for the
stock market to finish bottoming now
let's cover a couple of points that
viewers have brought up that we can
address in this new video since I am
making one now some people said well you
know the s p has already begun dropping
and that's not like the past here so
it's already an incorrect forecast
and my response to that is that's not
the case always sometimes the stock
market does begin dropping and only the
final drop occurs when the FED pivots
and you can see two examples of that
right here back in 1970 and 1974. you
can see that the stock market had
already peaked way before the pivot
occurred and only after the pivot did it
do its last sudden and very sharp and
deep drop down to its bottom in June of
1970. likewise in 1974 we have the top
way over here way before the pivot
occurs and at least half of the drop in
the S P 500 occurred before the pivot
then when the FED pivoted on interest
rates we had the last super deep
capitulation down to the bottom super
steep the steepest part of the whole
thing and the other half of it in a very
short span of time right coinciding with
that pivot down to the bottom of the S P
500 but like we have today we've already
got a drop in the S P 500 and that does
not mean that it's an invalid projection
because that already happened two times
Back in 1970 and 1974. so it's not
correct to say that you have to start
your drop like we did in 2000 coinciding
exactly with the FED pivot or in 2007
and 2008 it does not have to be that way
so that was uh question number one
question number two is how does this
correlate to the Bitcoin having event
and how does this correlate to the
Bitcoin price that is a fascinating
topic
So currently Bitcoin Is straddling this
16 000 line and it looks like it's ready
to drop down another leg I would not be
surprised to see us hit twelve thousand
dollars or ten thousand dollars on a
wick like I said in the last video I
think that any Bitcoin purchase below
fourteen thousand dollars is a great
hold probably for the long run for the
many many year hold but it's anyone's
guess exactly how low it's going to go
we may see a wick down to eight or ten
thousand I think that's possible
absolutely but one thing that's
fascinating is the Bitcoin having event
and how it correlates with this time
scale so the Bitcoin having event is
going to be mid 2024. and usually
there's a three to six month delay
between the having event and the next
Bull Run Peak so we're probably going to
be looking at a next Bitcoin Bull Run
Peak around mid 2025 or so somewhere in
2025 is my guess for the next Bitcoin
Peak
but look at this we have a stock market
low postulated for September 2026. so
I'll put my mouse cursor first right
around where the middle of 2024 would be
which is the next Bitcoin having event
it's going to occur somewhere around
here
and then I'll put my mouse cursor where
the delay occurs and we have usually a
peak right around here
so this is interesting because we're
expecting a Bitcoin Peak
coinciding with
75 or more of the drop of the S P 500
the S P 500 is going to bottom possibly
in 2026. so there's going to be
basically opposing vectors going on here
we're going to have a declining stock
market potentially coinciding with a
Bitcoin bull run after the having event
and that is going to be interesting and
I do not have an answer for you what's
going to happen there we've never seen
that before Bitcoin was invented as a
response to the 2008 housing crisis
right here literally bitcoin's existence
has only coincided with a secular bull
run this entire 10 or 12 years has just
been endless Bull Run we've never had a
drop that has been postulated to be of
this magnitude so to have a Bitcoin
having event which usually is the
Catalyst for a Bitcoin Bull Run occur
right smack dab in the middle of this
drop in the S P 500 is definitely
something new and then to have a peak
which would normally occur six or so
months after that having event
coinciding with the near bottom of the S
P 500 my God that's anyone's guess I do
not know what's going to happen there
it's almost like tug of war like which
force is going to be stronger is the
stock market going to pull Bitcoin down
despite its having event and its next
Bull Run is the next Bull Run going to
be lower than the current Bull Run of
2021 of 69 000 is it going to be a
lesser Peak I mean what's going to
happen here or is Bitcoin going to
decouple and gain value as a store of
value Asset and actually gain despite
the stock market collapsing and perhaps
maybe just like in 2008 when we saw this
massive crash and people were probably
looking desperately for a place to put
their money to store it safely we didn't
have Bitcoin back then we do now and
maybe in the next Bull Run and the next
stock market crash coinciding maybe
they'll decouple because people will
have a place to put their money and to
store it safely and maybe Bitcoin will
be that safe haven asset and truly begin
to show its colors and rise to well into
the six figure price range
I'm going to leave you with that thought
because I don't have the answer I'll be
curious to hear what you guys have to
say what's going to happen if this
prediction comes true if the S P 500
Bottoms in 2026 and we have a
corresponding Bitcoin Bull Run that
should be taking place just a year
before that what is going to pan out is
bitcoin's dominance over the stock
market going to rear its head and are we
going to see all-time highs blowing the
previous all-time highs out of the water
with Bitcoin or is the S P 500 and a
recession slash depression level event
going to pull it down to levels that are
lower than we've seen or ever expected
to see again like a 6 000 or a three
thousand dollar Bitcoin is that even
possible I think anything's possible at
this rate I think to say that impossible
is to be blind to the nature of the
market the market can and will pull
things out of its hat that you've never
seen before the market will do that by
definition because as the market will
always fool the maximum number of
participants
that's the nature of the stock market
and trading if you are with the herd
you're likely going to lose money and
you're likely going to be wrong so it's
going to be very interesting to see what
happens with Bitcoin and this potential
drop all dependent on when the FED
pivots and when the stock market bottom
is and there's a lot of variables here
but I think it's a fun discussion and I
think it's nice to talk about it and to
think about what could happen because
man I mean there'd be a lot of people
underwater if Bitcoin went down below
10K and it took two years to do so that
would be pretty devastational and I want
to be clear that I am a macro crypto
bull I think that Bitcoin and ethereum
are going to hold value for a very long
time and I do think that we will see new
all-time highs absolutely for both of
those assets
but the question at this point is is
when
thanks very much guys I hope you enjoyed
this have a great day
[Music]